Mataeliga Pio Sioa
We now have 7 political parties registered for the general elections with the ruling Human Rights Protection Party leading the charge to the 2021 race.
Nine months out of polling day in April the HRPP remains the party to beat. Based on the clamour by election candidates to run under the party banner, PM Tuilaepa and Co. are still a formidable political force.
If the polling booths were opened tomorrow they will again claim another landslide win.
Will the new political party led by the ex-HRPP stalwart, La’aulialemalietoa, make any difference if the country went to the polls next week? Nope.
Will the Tautua Samoa party? Nope.
Will SSIG? Nope
What about the other remaining parties? Big Nope.
What stands out for the HRPP other than as the ruling party, is the run of candidates confident of a better chance at success under the party colours.
Candidates are pouring into the party election register by the numbers and that is just one of the advantages.
The other and more compelling is the caliber of the candidates in addition to the current incumbents in Parliament.
The HRPP established policy of giving endorsement priority to sitting members, has not stopped rival candidates from running as unofficial members of the party.
While all the other parties are struggling for candidates to register for the general elections the HRPP is being forced to juggle.
In the 2016 general elections the Government candidates were stacked up 3 or 4 to one in some of the constituencies.
Right now that is also shaping up to be the case again. Will there be a winning repeat this second time around?
Based on the respectable standing of the candidates in their home electorates the odds are pretty reasonable.
Another way to analyse the HRPP winning chances are the MPs they have in Parliament. Out of the 50 seats in the House, officially 46 are supposed to be Government MPs.
If 26 or 27 seats are needed to win the House, how likely is it for the HRPP to collapse at the polls by a huge margin, serious enough to put their chances of regaining power out of reach?
An overwhelming issue of controversy the size of the 1981 Public Service Strike is needed to make that kind of impact.
The industrial action paralyzed the country and brought the Government of PM Tupuola Efi to its knees leading to the subsequent birth of the HRPP.
Old history we all know about. Is there any such controversy around in the build up to next year?
We do have the controversial bills for Constitutional changes bringing in some division in the villages but it is nowhere near the PSA strike.
The EFKS ‘faifeau’ tax issue has run its course but yet again it did not clog up Beach Road with angry protesting marchers.
The La’auli political drama was huge on entertainment value and a good distraction from the woes of the coronavirus pandemic but the man is no saint.
One of his key men in the business venture that went bad and is behind all his political troubles, was convicted of forgery during the week.
Not a good reflection on the integrity of the party with the same individual running as an election candidate.
All added nothing stands out as controversial enough to shake the trust on the HRPP leadership down to the roots.
With PM Tuilaepa leading the party for most probably the last time, that is going to be a tough chew indeed from the opposition perspective.
There were early promises that he was going into retirement at the end of this current term but if elected next year it will be his swan song term.
Of course the sentimental send off as the longest serving leader for Samoa and the Blue Pacific region, will touch the hearts of many voters who hold the man in high respect.
How do you counter that?
With little time left to win over the loyalty of the silent minority, the best shot for all these opposition parties is to form a political coalition.
Here is a doable scenario they can look into. Call a secret meeting of all party leaders if that is possible outside the reach of the sensitive eyes and ears of the public.
Look into ways they can strengthen their coalition and agree to work on winning strategies.
One strategic move they could ponder is to woo over any of the HRPP leadership members to lead the coalition.
The prevailing suggestion for the best way to bring the HRPP down is for the party to implode from the inside.
It happened before with the Vaai Kolone and Tupuola Efi coalition Government.
Deputy PM Fiame Naomi Mataafa who has had a run in quite recently with the PM would be a better target for the coalition to go after.
A true test for La’auli is to apply his exceptional ‘gift of the gap’ to woo over Fiame who could be the PSA strike they need to spark a voters run their way.
But Fiame is fiercely loyal to Tuilaepa so it may take more than the oratorical brilliance of La’auli to win her over.
If she still won’t budge which is very likely then there is Fonotoe Pierre or Faumuina Liuga. A long shot is Lealailepule Rimoni.
At least if they fail to bring the Government down they can set themselves up as a legitimate coalition opposition party.
That in itself is a huge victory in response to the forlorn call for a watchdog party to keep the HRPP honest.
What better lunching platform to build a longterm challenge to wrest power from the HRPP than to snip and snipe at them for the whole 5-year term?
Why not make the call for a House opposition their rallying call?
This may be the best and strongest platform for them to launch a serious drive for the general elections.
Smear campaigns against the shortcomings of the Government could backfire easily. Not recommended.
So what will it be?
As usual much will be made about the will and the mysterious ways of the Lord.
The teachings, however, of the Good Book underlines the rewards of honest toil and determination.
Today of course is the Lord’s rest day so lets bother Him tomorrow with our election speculations, wishes and hopes.