Samoa faces an elevated risk of tropical cyclones during the 2026–2027 season, with one to three named cyclones expected to form or pass within 400 kilometres of the country, according to the Samoa Meteorology Office.
The outlook, issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment on 28 October 2026, warns that at least one cyclone could reach Category 3 intensity or higher during the season, which runs from November 2026 to April 2027.
The forecast also points to below-normal rainfall and warmer-than-normal temperatures across Samoa over the coming months, raising concerns about the combined risks of tropical cyclones, flooding and water shortages.
The Meteorology Office said the current El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions remain in an El Niño phase, with climate models predicting that El Niño will continue to influence Samoa’s weather through early 2027.
El Niño affects regional climate patterns, including rainfall distribution and the likelihood and location of tropical cyclone development across the Pacific.
Despite the outlook for lower-than-normal rainfall, the Meteorology Office warned that Samoa could still experience intense rainfall associated with tropical cyclones, potentially triggering flash floods, landslides and contamination of water supplies.
Cyclones can also bring destructive winds and storm surges, damaging homes, infrastructure, crops and coastal areas while disrupting essential services and transport.
The combination of drier conditions and periods of intense rainfall could place additional pressure on communities, particularly where water supplies are vulnerable.
The Ministry said cyclone forecasts are based on statistical analysis and dynamic predictions and remain subject to changes in oceanic and atmospheric conditions.
It urged communities to remain vigilant, prepare for possible severe weather and follow official cyclone alerts, warnings and advisories throughout the season.
The Meteorology Division will continue monitoring ENSO and other climate systems in collaboration with regional and international partners. Monthly updates on the seasonal outlook are expected to begin in November 2026.
The Ministry said preparedness and early action remain essential to reducing the potential loss of life and damage to property, livelihoods and critical infrastructure.